What will happen when all the mobile phones, landline phones, and internet services got disabled for a day throughout the country?
What are the impacts that this will have on the economy, our environment and our society?
Economic Loss Estimation:
It is estimated that the loss of just a few percent in performance will result in a decrease in sales by up to 10 percent. More than 10 percent would result in losses of up to $10 billion. This is an enormous loss to a country that is projecting its GDP for 2009 to exceed $130 billion.
The Possible reason of this incident:
This crisis has been caused by a number of factors, one of which is the rising demand for digital services. As a result of the increased use of digital, the infrastructure has grown old and it is not able to keep up. The result is the increasing demand for new digital devices, which we cannot supply as they are built. Meanwhile, due to shortage of resources, many of our resources have reached the end of life and are no longer able to fulfill our demand.
Current Traditional Lanline Phone's Status:
At the moment we have about 1.3 billion people using our traditional landline phones and only 700 million landline phones in total, mobile phones are increasing by about 10% per month. As a result, more than 10% of our landline phones are not needed and they are collecting dust, ready to be replaced by new digital devices.
Crisis of Confidence in Money Transaction:
This crisis will increase further as many of our traditional revenue generating business such as banks, telecom companies and utilities are unable to maintain their systems due to the aging infrastructure. As a result, they are unable to raise money, this will result in a crisis of confidence for the private sector, which will result in a crisis for the private industry and Government. They will not be able to raise money for financing for new projects.
Alarming rate of Growth of Mobile users will be heavily impacted:
There has been an alarming rate of growth of mobile phones in the last few years. In most countries, mobile phone penetration is around 20%. Globally, the World Bank estimates that mobile phone penetration is about 250 million. And as this growth rate continues, by the end of the decade mobile phones will represent more than half of all handsets sold worldwide.
Now I am changing the Topic from the Answer towards other Factor:
What will happen to these legacy handsets? According to Barclays estimates, by 2020, the number of handsets will reach 10 billion and by 2026, 20.8 billion. But even more worrying is that more than half of the world's 3G handsets will not be deployed in the highest-income countries.
Gartner's Report:
According to a report by Gartner, the world will reach 10 billion mobile handsets in 2014. But by the end of 2020, the number will reach 20 billion, as these legacy devices will not be replaced, replaced and replaced. The global decline of legacy phones in GDP terms is not compensated by the growing mobile phone numbers in terms of consumption units (handsets in use, handsets not in use, no call, no text, etc). In developed countries, legacy phone consumption as a proportion of GDP has increased from 1.1% in 2005 to 1.7% in 2010. With the slowdown in mobile phone growth, we should see a decline in usage of legacy handsets in the years to come, a trend that should be particularly noticeable in the world's most developed economies. But in the developed countries, mobile phone growth continues to outpace growth of their legacy handsets. This is an empirical fact.
Impact on Low End Handset (Mobile Phones)
But what will happen to the low-end handsets? The global decline of low-end handsets is especially disturbing, as low-end handsets are where the bulk of the business for legacy handset manufacturers will come from. However, as low-end growth slows, legacy handset companies cannot sustain their business. With a slowdown in the growth of low-end handsets, it will increase the proportion of high-end handsets that will be sold and therefore most likely increase the proportion of low-end handsets that will be replaced. Therefore, the proportion of low-end handsets replaced should be correspondingly reduced, thus, reducing the share of legacy handsets replaced. It is evident that these dynamics will not happen, for three reasons.
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1. Most users of legacy handsets do not buy high-end handsets
2. Even those users who buy high-end handsets are replacing them at a low rate.
3. As high-end handsets become more commonplace, the low-end handsets should be replaced at a higher rate
Indeed, as the mobile phone industry grows, it will continue the trend of declining legacy handsets replaced by replacement of high-end handsets, thus leaving low-end handsets where they are in this article. But this is not the real issue here. The real issue is that the industry still has more than three times as many legacy handsets as high-end handsets and needs to replace low-end handsets to keep pace.
The last industry where the legacy handsets will win out is the wireless broadband market. The wireless broadband market also has a low-end component (sim cards) and needs to be replaced to keep pace with the high-end component. This is despite the fact that the legacy SIM has significantly lower power consumption than the high-end SIM.
Even though a number of states and cities in the US have announced their intent to switch over to high-end handsets, the industry needs to do more to convince state and local government leaders that moving to high-end handsets is the best thing to do for their citizens. The mobile industry can use its clout in the industry to push state and local government leaders to take the high-end approach.
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